Countercyclical investing, 3 advantages and 3 disadvantages

Peter Verstoep | 11-08-2020

It is easy to start with a quote from our, unfortunately deceased, national hero, Mr. Johan Cruijff, that 'every disadvantage has its advantage'. That may be a truism, but it becomes a lot more complicated if the advantages are not directly related to the disadvantages or vice versa. The question then is: is it wise, smart to invest and what does the well-known gut feeling say? You make that choice yourself or with your team. And the far-reaching consequences that this can have could easily give you a stomach ache. To reduce the chance of this happening, I would like to take you through a number of considerations.

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Advantage 1:

Then we come to the age-old marketing principle of supply and demand. If there is little demand and a lot of supply, prices and conditions are under pressure. It is important to carefully consider the size of your demand or need; you are able to resist the temptation to make a quick decision because it is simply so “favourable”.
If there is sufficient need, purchases can be made under very favorable conditions and yes, I consciously write conditions, because purchasing solely on price can turn against you like a boomerang in the future. Be aware of this and also consider terms of service and support services when negotiating, such as the use of a helpdesk or employee training.

Disadvantage 1:

'Purchasing costs money, not investing costs capital' is a common entrepreneurial saying. That may of course be true, but you must have the money or opt for financing and then the question is whether that is beneficial. Depending on the type of investment, a decision will have to be made. For example, if you invest in sustainability, you may be able to make a so-called 'hit' in terms of subsidies and investment deductions. Investing continues to entail risks, so weigh this carefully with experts such as accountants and bookkeepers.

Advantage 2:

By investing you send a signal. You've probably heard of others asking you: “I'm sure you're having a hard time too? ”. This is a search for supporters and the question often comes from one's own insecurity. And let me emphasize, healthy uncertainty is certainly not a bad thing, it encourages better performance, but it should not paralyze. Anyway, back to the signal.

Suppose your answer is: “Oh well, that's tough, I invested in ……….. last week and am going to invest in ……………..” next month. Then something happens to the other person. And companies always like to do business with other successful companies, success is like a magnet and attracts other success.

Disadvantage 2:

Investing negatively affects your annual figures, you may end up writing red figures for the current year. Not a good signal and difficult to explain afterwards, so it has to be planned. Clear arguments must be provided to substantiate why the investment has been made and what benefits can be expected in the long term. That shows vision and if there is any logic in this, it commands respect. Communicating the right message through the right channels is important because there is a good chance that it can be misinterpreted.

In short: manage this process and the expectations, then it can be received very positively if the red numbers suddenly turn out to be 'only' slightly pink.

Advantage 3:

The P for Personnel, or the Human Capital praised by many organizations. In a time of crisis, many companies say goodbye to people in the name of cutbacks, and some of them may include good to very good employees. The right time for you to set up a campaign to recruit staff, especially in those sectors where it is difficult, and to invite prospective employees to participate in a recruitment and selection process within your organization. Take the time to make well-considered choices.

Disadvantage 3:

Doubt sets in, you have invested your own money in things that really seemed sensible to you and now things are going wrong. Even in markets that have come to a standstill against all expectations, without our all-knowing economists seeing it coming (I promise I will write something about economists again). Then leadership comes into play and the well-known “calm can save you” applies. With the good employees from advantage 3 you can adapt your organization quickly and flexibly, what we call 'agile' these days. Involve these people and make a plan of attack, because employees are still the hardest to follow their own plan.

Which brings me to a striking ending: “WINNERS HAVE A DYNAMIC/ADAPTABLE PLAN AND OTHERS HAVE LOW EXCUSES”

Good luck with entrepreneurship, leading and managing everything that comes your way.

KENNETH SMIT, Peter Verstoep

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